Getting a grip on economic events - from Steel to GDP
Q&A
Looking at the business cycles in advanced economies over five decades:
Can you explain the ups and downs in the past in Industry and GDP? Can you show with precision where you are now in the business cycle and explain why? Yes. Chapters 1, 2 and 3.
Can you predict what’s ahead? In some cases yes, in some cases to some extent. And at the beginning of a downturn, it is possible to tell which case it handles about. Chapters 5, 6.
What about my cyclical branch? GDP, Industrial production and main cyclical industries are synchronous in the cycle. Branches with the highest amplitude lead the way. Chapters 3, 4.
Can you see crisis coming? In some cases yes, in some cases have reason to be on alert and in some cases not at all. Chapters 5, 10.
Is there proof of practical value of the above? Yes. Chapter 10.
The material is based on my 30 years' work with economic events in cyclical industries.
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